Aryna Sabalenka’s recent performances have sparked considerable discussion about her chances at the upcoming French Open. With a string of impressive victories and a noticeable evolution in her game, many are beginning to see her as a top contender for the coveted title. While Iga Swiatek has long been considered the “Queen of Clay,” Sabalenka’s recent form suggests a potential shift in the balance of power. This article delves into the factors that contribute to Sabalenka’s strong position, examining her recent performances, her improved clay-court game, and the overall landscape of the women’s singles competition at Roland Garros.
Sabalenka’s Ascent: A Formidable Force in Women’s Tennis
Aryna Sabalenka has firmly established herself as a dominant force in women’s tennis. As of May 2025, she holds an impressive record of 20 WTA singles titles, including three Grand Slam titles: the 2023 and 2024 Australian Open, and the 2024 US Open. She also has won six doubles titles on the WTA Tour. Her powerful game, characterized by aggressive hitting and a strong serve, has made her a formidable opponent on any surface.
In 2024, Sabalenka was named WTA Player of the Year, a testament to her dominant season, which included winning her second and third Grand Slam titles at the Australian and US Open. She also finished 2024 as the WTA year-end No. 1 for the first time in her career.
Recent Successes and Momentum
Sabalenka’s 2025 season has been nothing short of spectacular. She has already secured three tour-level titles, more than any other player, male or female, this year. These titles include the WTA 500 event in Brisbane and WTA 1000 events in Miami and Madrid. Her triumph at the Madrid Open, where she defeated Coco Gauff in the final, was particularly significant, showcasing her prowess on clay and further solidifying her status as a top contender for Roland Garros.
Moreover, Sabalenka has consistently reached the late stages of tournaments, demonstrating her resilience and mental fortitude. In 2025, she has reached the final of six of the eight tournaments she has participated in. This consistent performance underscores her ability to perform under pressure and maintain a high level of play throughout grueling tournaments.
Clay Court Evolution: Adapting and Thriving
Historically, clay has not been Sabalenka’s strongest surface. Of her 20 career titles, only three have come on clay, all of them at the Madrid Open. However, recent developments suggest that she is rapidly improving her clay-court game.
Embracing Variety and Finesse
One of the most notable changes in Sabalenka’s game is her increased use of variety and finesse. Known for her powerful, aggressive style, she has begun incorporating more drop shots, serve-and-volley tactics, and spin into her game. This newfound versatility allows her to disrupt her opponents’ rhythm and exploit weaknesses on the court.
Sabalenka herself has acknowledged the importance of adapting her game to clay. She has spoken about focusing on putting more spin on the ball and maintaining concentration for longer periods. She has also recognized that she needs to be patient and avoid rushing to hit winners, adjusting her game to the slower pace of clay courts.
Madrid Triumph: A Clay Court Breakthrough
Sabalenka’s victory at the 2025 Madrid Open was a significant milestone in her clay-court journey. She demonstrated her ability to handle the surface and overcome tough opponents. En route to the title, she dropped only one set in six matches, showcasing her improved consistency and control on clay.
Her final against Coco Gauff was a particularly impressive display of her evolving game. Sabalenka held off a late surge from Gauff to win in straight sets, demonstrating her mental strength and tactical adaptability. This win not only secured her third Madrid title but also signaled her readiness to contend for major titles on clay.
The Roland Garros Landscape: Rivals and Opportunities
While Sabalenka’s recent form is undeniably impressive, she faces stiff competition at Roland Garros. The women’s singles draw is filled with talented players, each with their own strengths and aspirations.
Iga Swiatek: The Reigning Clay Court Queen
Iga Swiatek remains the player to beat at Roland Garros. She has won the title for the past three years and has established herself as the dominant force on clay. Her impressive record at Roland Garros and her mastery of the surface make her a formidable opponent for anyone.
However, Swiatek has shown some vulnerability in recent tournaments. For example, Coco Gauff defeated Swiatek in the semi-finals of the 2025 Madrid Open with a score of 6-1, 6-1. This is an example that demonstrates that Swiatek is beatable on clay, and that the field is open for other contenders.
Other Top Contenders
In addition to Swiatek and Sabalenka, several other players could contend for the title at Roland Garros. Coco Gauff, with her recent victory over Swiatek in Madrid, has proven her ability to perform on clay. Other players to watch include Mirra Andreeva, Elena Rybakina, and Qinwen Zheng.
Betting Odds and Expert Predictions
The betting odds for the 2025 French Open reflect the wide-open nature of the women’s singles competition. While Iga Swiatek is still the favorite, Aryna Sabalenka is a close second, with other players like Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva also in the mix.
According to Sports Betting Dime, as of April 17, 2025, the odds for the top contenders were:
- Iga Swiatek: -120
- Aryna Sabalenka: +450
- Mirra Andreeva: +600
- Coco Gauff: +900
- Qinwen Zheng: +1800
- Elena Rybakina: +2000
These odds suggest that while Swiatek is the frontrunner, Sabalenka and other top players have a realistic chance of challenging for the title.
Sabalenka’s Mindset: Confidence and Determination
Aryna Sabalenka’s mental fortitude and unwavering self-belief are crucial assets as she approaches Roland Garros. She has repeatedly expressed her confidence in her clay-court game and her determination to achieve a different result this year.
“Huge Confidence in My Clay-Court Game”
Following her Madrid Open victory, Sabalenka stated, “I hope this year will be different from the previous ones. I have huge confidence in my clay-court game”. She added, “I’ve already reached the semi-finals and came very close to making the final. I’ll go there to compete and fight with everything I’ve got. I’m ready to give my all on every point. I really hope to achieve a different result this year”.
This positive mindset, combined with her improved game and recent successes, makes Sabalenka a formidable contender at Roland Garros.
Conclusion: A New Era on Clay?
Aryna Sabalenka’s evolution on clay, coupled with her dominant form and unwavering confidence, positions her as a serious threat at the 2025 French Open. While Iga Swiatek remains the favorite, Sabalenka’s recent performances suggest a potential shift in the hierarchy of women’s tennis. As the clay-court season progresses, it will be fascinating to see if Sabalenka can continue her ascent and finally conquer the coveted title at Roland Garros.
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