Jack Draper Ascends in Alternative Tennis Rankings, Entering ‘Top Four’ Discussions

British tennis star Jack Draper is making waves not only in the official ATP rankings but also in alternative ranking systems, sparking conversations about a potential “top four” alongside established names like Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz. Draper’s recent performances, including his title win at the Indian Wells Masters, have significantly boosted his standing in these alternative metrics, which some argue offer a more accurate reflection of current form.

Alternative Ranking Systems: A Different Perspective

While the ATP rankings are the official measure of a player’s success, alternative systems like Elo and Universal Tennis Rating (UTR) provide different perspectives by emphasizing various factors such as opponent quality and recent performance. These systems are often used by analysts, gamblers, and fans seeking a deeper understanding of a player’s current level.

Elo Ranking: Measuring Strength in Each Match

The Elo rating system, initially developed for chess, has been adapted for tennis by sites like Tennis Abstract. This system calculates a player’s rating based on match results, with the rating increasing after a win and decreasing after a loss. A key feature of Elo is that it considers the quality of the opponent, meaning that victories over higher-rated players result in a greater increase in the winner’s rating.

According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo rankings, Jack Draper has surged into the top four, sitting behind only Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz. This placement suggests that Elo views Draper as one of the strongest players on tour currently, taking into account his recent wins against top-tier opponents. Specifically, Draper’s Elo rating reached 2102.0 as of March 2025, placing him ahead of players like Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev in peak Elo.

UTR: A Universal Measure of Skill

The Universal Tennis Rating (UTR) is another alternative ranking system that aims to provide a single, unified measure of a player’s skill level, regardless of age, gender, or location. UTR uses a 16-point scale and considers match results over the past 12 months, giving more weight to recent performances. The algorithm also factors in the skill level of the opponent and the final result of each match.

While Draper’s UTR may not place him in the top four, his consistent performance and recent success have significantly improved his rating, placing him among the top players in the world. As of late February 2025, Draper held a UTR of 15.91, placing him sixth overall.

Jack Draper’s Rise: A Closer Look

Jack Draper’s ascent in both the official ATP rankings and alternative systems can be attributed to several factors:

• Consistent Performance: Draper has demonstrated remarkable consistency over the past few months, avoiding bad losses and consistently performing well against top players.
• Key Victories: Draper’s wins over high-ranked opponents like Carlos Alcaraz, Taylor Fritz, and Ben Shelton have significantly boosted his rankings in systems like Elo, which reward victories against strong players.
• Title Wins: Draper’s recent title wins, including his first Masters 1000 title at Indian Wells, have further solidified his position as one of the top players on tour.
• Improved Aggression: Draper has shown progress with his aggression score. Previously, Draper ranked 12th among the top 50 in service points won, but only 44th in break points saved. This demonstrated that key points matter more than others and although Draper has climbed into the top ten, he still loses a fair number of service games that he would have won with better break-point performance. Excluding the Fonseca match, Draper saved just 6 of 13 break points.

The Official ATP Ranking: Top 10 Debut

While alternative ranking systems offer valuable insights, the official ATP rankings remain the primary measure of a player’s standing in the tennis world. Following his impressive run at Indian Wells, Jack Draper has broken into the top 10 of the ATP rankings for the first time in his career, reaching a career-high of World No. 7 on March 17, 2025.

Draper becomes only the fifth British man to reach the top 10 in the Open Era, joining Greg Rusedski, Tim Henman, Andy Murray, and Cam Norrie. This achievement marks a significant milestone in Draper’s career and solidifies his status as one of the most promising young players in the game.

The Road Ahead

With his recent success and top 10 debut, Jack Draper has firmly established himself as a force to be reckoned with on the ATP Tour. As he continues to develop and refine his game, Draper has the potential to climb even higher in the rankings and compete for major titles.

Whether or not he can truly break into the “top four” and consistently challenge the likes of Sinner, Djokovic, and Alcaraz remains to be seen, but his progress in alternative ranking systems suggests that he is well on his way to becoming one of the elite players in men’s tennis.