Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Who’s the French Open Favorite?

As the 2025 French Open approaches, the spotlight is firmly on two young stars: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Both players are considered strong contenders for the title, and the prospect of a final showdown between them has fans buzzing with anticipation. But who is the favorite, and what are their chances?

The Rise of Alcaraz and Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have rapidly ascended to the top of the tennis world, captivating audiences with their exceptional skills and fierce competitiveness. Their rivalry is already being compared to the likes of Federer-Nadal and Djokovic-Nadal, and many believe they will dominate the sport for years to come.

• Carlos Alcaraz: The young Spaniard has already captured two Grand Slam titles in 2024 – the French Open and Wimbledon. Known for his aggressive style and versatility on court, Alcaraz has proven himself a force to be reckoned with on all surfaces.
• Jannik Sinner: The Italian has also had a stellar year, achieving the world No. 1 ranking and winning his first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open. Sinner’s powerful baseline game and improved net play make him a formidable opponent.

Expert Opinions

Tennis insider Gill Gross believes that Alcaraz and Sinner are the only two favorites to win the 2025 French Open men’s title. Gross suggests that any other winner would be a “surprising” outcome.

• “Nobody is gonna call Roland Garros ‘open’ on the men’s side this year, right? There are two names who I’ll consider picking to win. Everybody else falls under ‘surprising’ at this point”.

Alcaraz’s Perspective

Despite being the defending champion, Alcaraz is likely to be seeded second at the French Open. However, he sees this as an advantage, as it would prevent him from facing Sinner before the final.

• “I think it’s great being (the) second seed in Roland Garros, knowing that I’m not going to see Jannik before the final, if I reach it. I think it’s great. It’s something that I didn’t think about, honestly”.

In 2024, leading up to the French Open, Alcaraz admitted to having low expectations due to a forearm injury. While he managed to win the tournament, he acknowledged feeling apprehensive about his forehand.

Sinner’s Road to Roland Garros

Sinner’s preparation for the French Open has been somewhat disrupted by a three-month suspension, which he has disputed. However, he has made a strong return to the court, reaching the semi-finals of the Italian Open without dropping a set.

• Sinner is aiming to carry any momentum he gains from Rome into the French Open, the only Grand Slam he has yet to win.

Head-to-Head Record

Alcaraz and Sinner have played each other ten times, with Alcaraz holding a 6-4 advantage. Two of those matches were on clay, with each player winning once. Their most recent encounter was at the French Open 2024 semifinal, where Alcaraz prevailed in a five-set thriller.

Factors Favoring Alcaraz

• Experience: Alcaraz is the defending champion and has already proven his ability to win on the clay courts of Roland Garros.
• Versatility: His all-court game and ability to adapt to different opponents make him a difficult matchup for anyone.
• Clay-Court Prowess: Alcaraz has demonstrated exceptional skill on clay, with a finals appearance at the Barcelona Open and a semi-final spot at the Italian Open.

Factors Favoring Sinner

• World No. 1 Ranking: Sinner’s current position at the top of the ATP rankings reflects his outstanding form and consistency.
• Motivation: The French Open is the only Grand Slam that Sinner has yet to win, giving him extra motivation to perform well.
• Recent Form: Sinner’s strong showing at the Italian Open, following his suspension, indicates that he is in good shape heading into Roland Garros.

French Open 2024 Results

In the 2024 French Open, Alcaraz defeated Sinner in the semi-finals in a thrilling five-set match. Alcaraz went on to win the title, defeating Alexander Zverev in the final. Sinner acknowledged his disappointment after the loss but expressed excitement about their ongoing rivalry.

The Prediction

Predicting the winner of the French Open is always a difficult task, especially with such evenly matched contenders. While Alcaraz may have a slight edge due to his experience and success on clay, Sinner’s current form and motivation cannot be ignored. Ultimately, the winner will likely come down to who can perform their best tennis under the pressure of a Grand Slam tournament.

• Some sportsbooks have Alcaraz as the favorite, followed by Sinner.

Regardless of who emerges victorious, the 2025 French Open promises to be an exciting tournament, with the potential for a memorable Alcaraz-Sinner final.