Madrid Open Shake-Up: Could Swiatek’s No. 2 Ranking Be at Risk?

Iga Swiatek, the defending champion at the Madrid Open, is currently ranked No. 2 in the world. After a shaky start, surviving a scare against Alexandra Eala, could Swiatek realistically lose her No. 2 ranking after the Madrid Open? Let’s analyze the scenarios.

How WTA Rankings Work

The WTA rankings are based on a rolling 52-week system, which means a player’s ranking is determined by her results in the best 16 tournaments (18 if she competes in the WTA Finals) over the past year. Points are awarded based on the level of the tournament and how far a player advances. The tournaments that count towards a player’s ranking include:

• The four Grand Slams (Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open)
• The six mandatory WTA 1000 combined tournaments (Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid, Rome, Canada/Montreal, Cincinnati, Beijing).
• One WTA 1000 mandatory (WTA-only) tournament
• The best results from other WTA-approved events

Every Monday, the WTA updates the world rankings, adjusting them based on recent performances. When 52 weeks have passed since points were earned, they are dropped, and new points are added. This constant adjustment means players’ rankings fluctuate depending on their latest results.

The Madrid Open and Swiatek’s Ranking

Swiatek is the defending champion at the Madrid Open, having defeated Aryna Sabalenka in a thrilling final last year. This means she is defending a significant number of points. Failing to defend those points could negatively impact her ranking.

Potential Scenarios

Several factors could influence whether Swiatek loses her No. 2 ranking after the Madrid Open:

1. Her Performance: The most direct factor is how well Swiatek performs in the tournament. A poor showing, such as an early exit, would mean she doesn’t defend many of her points from last year, thus lowering her ranking.

2. Performance of Other Players: The performance of other top players, particularly those close to her in the rankings, will also play a crucial role. For example, if Coco Gauff or Elena Rybakina have a strong showing in Madrid, they could potentially earn enough points to surpass Swiatek, provided Swiatek doesn’t perform well herself.

3. Defending Points: Swiatek is defending a lot of points in the coming weeks, having won Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros last year. This puts extra pressure on her to perform well in these tournaments to maintain her ranking.

Factors Working in Swiatek’s Favor

Despite the challenges, several factors could help Swiatek maintain her No. 2 ranking:

1. Clay Court Dominance: Clay is Swiatek’s best surface, with four Roland Garros titles to her name. This makes her a strong contender in Madrid, increasing her chances of defending her title and the associated ranking points.

2. Experience and Mental Fortitude: Swiatek has demonstrated remarkable mental strength and the ability to perform under pressure. This will be crucial in navigating the challenges of a high-stakes tournament like the Madrid Open.

3. Recent Form: Despite not having won a title yet in 2025, Swiatek has had a solid year, with several semifinal appearances. This suggests she is in good form and capable of performing well in Madrid.

Swiatek’s Madrid Open 2025 So Far

Swiatek has already played one match at the Madrid Open 2025, where she faced a tough challenge from Alexandra Eala. Swiatek had previously lost to Eala in Miami, and the young Filipina player once again proved to be a difficult opponent, with Swiatek having to come back from a set and a break down to win the match 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.

The No. 1 Ranking

While the original question focused on the No. 2 ranking, it’s worth noting that the No. 1 ranking could also be in play depending on the performances of Swiatek and current No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka. If Swiatek performs well and Sabalenka falters, Swiatek could potentially regain the top spot.

Final Thoughts

Whether Iga Swiatek will lose her No. 2 ranking after the Madrid Open depends on several factors, including her performance, the performance of her rivals, and her ability to defend a significant number of points. While the challenge is significant, Swiatek’s clay-court prowess, experience, and recent form suggest she is well-equipped to handle the pressure and maintain her position.